Why We Believe In Crazy Stuff
Based on no expertise or significant research I will offer my own probably completely unoriginal theory as to why many people refuse to accept established orthodoxies and sometimes even the evidence of their own eyes. (I’m talking about you MAGAs and Brexiteers)
We’re in a tribe on the African plains about 200 thousand years ago, there are about 150 of us, it’s less of a tribe and more of an extended family. It’s a hand-to-mouth existence: hunting animals, foraging for fruit and vegetables. The tribe largely sticks to its patch, we’ve built some basic shelters and have an uneasy peace with the surrounding tribes.
Things are not going well. The animals that normally pass through our patch at this time of year did not turn up and it didn’t rain like it usually does so the vegetation isn’t as fertile as usual. Most of us are hungry, some of the very old and some of the babies have already died.
The leaders of the tribe are the slightly older men. They have survived a few fights with the surrounding tribes, had plenty of children with the most fertile women and now have greying hair. This group of wise-guys cannot agree upon the best course of action.
One the one hand we have the more cautious, rational leaders — they think the tribe should stay put. We can pool and ration the resources that we have, maybe we can work together with the other tribes. Eventually the weather will change.
Then we have the believers. They have seen clouds over the hills on the horizon and birds flying in that direction. They say we should move the camp, fight our way through local tribes, climb the mountains and there we will find a new territory full of food.
“You must be completely mad!” Say the cautious ones, “you have no evidence for any of that nonsense. Lots of us will die in the process and besides, you risk-takers seem to have plenty of food, why don’t you just share it out and we can all make it through to the next rainy season?”
“You weak fools” say the risk takers, “Our cousin Brian got this plan by speaking to a magic mouse so it must be true. The mouse said that you are just trying to take our stuff so you deserve to die anyway. We’re off.” And so they grab their possessions, their fertile women and the magic mouse and head off to the hills.
The cautious ones, are preoccupied with the rights of each member of the tribe. They usually make it through, but not without plenty of them suffering and dying periodically. Their rational and incremental approach allows them to grow to form huge civilisations.
The risk takers, are willing to sacrifice members of their own tribes in order to pursue their heart-felt but hard-to-explain goals. They either fail completely or succeed spectacularly. They break open huge new territories and eventually colonise the whole planet.
What causes some people be cautious and evidence based and some of us to advocate enormous risks based on nothing but crazy talk and pure faith? It could just be a flip of single letter in our DNA. And why do we call the cautious ones liberals and the believers conservatives? That makes no sense at all.
